The 2000 election will always be remembered for the botched call of Florida for Gore by media pundits and the following recount drama of hanging chads and Supreme Court rulings. But Florida was not the only close state in 2000, New Hampshire, Wisconsin, and New Mexico all had very close results in the presidential race. I remember on election night that the media was quick to call three of the four electoral votes from Maine to Al Gore, but hesitated for some time in calling the fourth one. Maine, like Nebraska and only Nebraska, allocates two electors for the statewide vote and one elector to the victor of each congressional district. Although Gore won Maine statewide, it was only 49% to 44% with Ralph Nader drawing in a significant 6% (actually 5.7% but I'll be nice to him and round up). The pesky electoral vote that narrowly slipped out of reach of George W. Bush in 2000 was from the 2nd Congressional district, Gore only won by a narrow 47% to 46%.

Maine is, after all, the state where an incumbent President of the United States finished third. In 1992, George H. W. Bush finished narrowly behind the third party ticket of Ross Perot. In 1994, Maine elected Independent Angus King as Governor with a rather fiscally conservative platform ("sometimes the best thing the government can do is get out of the way."); it reelected him in 1998 with 59% of the vote. Following the 2000 election, there was every reason to believe that it would be a key battleground in 2004. Both parties rallied the voters and turnout increased 14% from 2000 in contrast to population growth of only 3% in the past four years. John Kerry won 54%-45%, blowing Bush out of the water. The vote in the 2nd District was 52% to 46%.

Consider that many of the predictions about the 2004 election based on past elections focused on Bush's advantages as the incumbent, the strength of the economy, and the rallying around the Presidency impact of war and conflict abroad. Instead of a predicted victory around 55% based on historical trends, George W. Bush squeaked by with just under 51% of the vote. Jonathan Chait of The New Republic argued against the idea of libertarians and liberals working together in the Democratic Party by pointing out that even as libertarians swung against Bush, the country as a whole swung to Bush by around 3-percentage points. This ignores that Bush should have gained an increase in support from 2000 to 2004 based on historical trends. For Bush to increase by only 3 points is a sign that his policies significantly alienated some voters and encouraged them to seek an alternative by voting for Democrat John Kerry.

The estimate by David Boaz and David Kirby is that roughly the swing among libertarian voters cost Bush roughly 2 million votes in his 2004 reelection bid. This isn't enough to explain all of the discrepancy from the expected 55%, but I think it's plausible that this is one component. And given the high level of support that libertarians gave to Perot in 1992 (33% of the libertarian vote) and the strong showing for mavericks like Perot and King in Maine, I suspect that a significant component of the pro-Kerry swing in Maine was due to libertarian voters. When MassInc divided America into ten political regions, their predominantly libertarian and Western Sagebrush region included several counties of New Hampshire and Maine. The Maine counties they labeled as Sagebrush were Aroostook, Franklin, Hancock, Oxford, Penobscot, Piscataquis, Somerset, Waldo, and Washington. All of these countries make up the 2nd District, a large rural district that is larger than New Hampshire, Vermont, and Massachusetts combined. Aroostook County alone is larger than Rhode Island and Connecticut combined.

Maine was the first state to reject the REAL ID Act, although it's Republican Senator Susan Collins seems to be in denial about that. Maine's state legislature had already passed a resolution in 2004 calling for the reform of the Patriot Act and unlike many other blue states its rural nature gives it a population with significant opposition to gun control. The Free State Project in neighboring New Hampshire would no doubt argue that the Granite State is the most libertarian state, but Maine clearly has a libertarian leaning to its own state politics.

Republican Senator Susan Collins is up for reelection in 2008 and is vulnerable. Part of the problem is her Republican affiliation in a state that is trending Democratic because of the unpopularity of Bush and his style of conservative politics. But another part is her own doing, her own views on issues like the REAL ID Act are out of step with the mainstream of Maine. Congressman Tom Allen from Maine's 1st District is already preparing a run against her. The 1st District is more urban than the 2nd; the 1st has an even split between rural and urban while the 2nd District is 70% rural. To help appeal to the 2nd District, he has hired Heather Quinn, who in 2006 managed the campaign of Congressman Mike Michaud, who represents the 2nd District.

What should worry Senator Collins is that Tom Allen has already has a record that will appeal to the voters of Maine's 2nd District, in addition to his own 1st District. He is leading the fight against the REAL ID Act; he favors outright repeal, not just delaying implementation. He voted against the original passage of the REAL ID Act, supports medical marijuana, favors more open relations with Cuba, voted against reauthorization of the Patriot Act, and supported an effort to block funding for electronic surveillance programs not approved by FISA. You no doubt will be hearing more about Tom Allen from me in the future, but right now he needs our help.

Downsize DC has an action page set up so you can contact your legislators and urge them to support the legislation sponsored by Congressman Allen. This is not just a cause that impacts the people of Maine, it impacts all of us. There will be a time in the future to thank Congressman Allen for leading the fight in Congress against the act, but right now he needs our help in applying pressure to our elected representatives. Maine's legislature has already passed a resolution opposing the act. And you know what they say, as Maine goes . . .