Is there a Ron Paul Revolution? Yes, there is...

Submitted by ka1igu1a on Sun, 2007-06-10 07:18.

This post is revisiting an earlier post I made here, expressing some skepticism about Ron Paul's internet popularity translating to campaign dollars or scientific, random polling--or even if either traditonal party could really serve as a viable outlet to a libertarian point of view.

Based on the evidence, I now have to conclude I was perhaps wrong in my skepticism. According to varoius reports, for example as cited on Andrew Sullivan, Paul is starting to raise enough funds to become a viable candidate. At this point, scientific polling means little; rather it's entirely a money game. And it's all because of the debates, which means that, contrary to my earlier pessimism about the 2 top political parties serving as an outlet for libertarian ideas, libertarianism, in the end, perhaps just needed a national stage to light a fire.

I wouldn't have thunk it earlier, but now I sincerely believe that if the iraq war continues unabated through the start of next year, Ron Paul is going to blow up as a national candidate. That is to say, he will have a legitimate chance of winning. He would have the money, he could take New Hamsphire. And having studied up on him a bit more recently, I've come to learn that Paul is flexible on incorporating Positive Liberty libertarianism into his message, which would appeal to left-libertarians. Ron Paul would be running a general campaign for a primary election and he would have to trigger a significant cross-over vote. If the Iraq War was still raging(and the democrats still hadn't defunded the war), I now believe he could do it. In any event, I now consider Ron Paul to be the best hope of the dream to bring together libertarians of all stripes into a unified coalition to become a viable political coalition in the short term.

Money is necessary but not

#3852 On Sun, 2007 06 10 21:51 mlinksva said,

Money is necessary but not sufficient. Paul is not a viable candidate in the sense that winning the GOP nomination is almost unimaginable. But whatever success he does have may shake things up and in this I wish him the very very best.

FWIW, Paul's latest price on Intrade gives him a 1.4% chance of nomination, see http://www.midasoracle.org/2007/06/09/ron-pauls-zealots-on-intrade/

Well, I realize that...

#3853 On Sun, 2007 06 10 22:05 ka1igu1a said,

I had a condition that the War in Iraq would still be at full escalation next year. If that's the case, then he will be able to raise sufficient money to give himself a legitimate shot.