Physician, Heal Thyself
Some advice for the Ron Paul campaign on the eve of Nevada, South Carolina, and the weekend before MLK Day and the next money-bomb.
Dr. Ron Paul, heal thyself.
Tomorrow, you are probably going to place fifth in South Carolina, ahead of Rudy Giuliani (again), but well behind Fred Thompson, who's probably fourth place showing will knock him out of the race.
Nevada, well, the whole caucus system is funny. So the polls might be way off. Ron Paul is the only Republican to oppose Yucca Mountain, which might count for something. I wouldn't be surprised if he places ahead of both Thompson and Giuliani, who are ignoring Nevada.
In the days to come, Fred Thompson will drop out, freeing his supporters in Florida. Florida is now looking like a close four-way race between Giuliani, Romney, Huckabee, and McCain. Romney has two silvers, two golds, and will probably pick up another victory in Nevada. The pressure will be off of him in Florida, but he'll still be on the ground competing. There will be a lot of pressure on Giuliani, but don't expect him to drop out until after February 5th. The silver medalist of South Carolina (either McCain or Huckabee), will be trying to make a come back in Florida.
And Ron Paul, well, Ron Paul won't really matter. Sorry Dr. No.
But Ron Paul can do some things to salvage what remains of his campaign, raise another round of the big bucks on Monday, and at least resurrect his reputation going forward. Maybe he'll have enough cash to throw some money into the February 5th states, especially California's delegate by district primary.
Here's my suggestion to Dr. Paul. Today would be a great day to e-mail your supporters and come clean about the Ron Paul Newsletters. First, it's before Nevada and South Carolina. No one will be able to say that you felt "pressured" into doing it by less than stellar results. Second, it's the Friday before MLK Day. You should take the opportunity to come clean, throw Lew Rockwell under the bus, and praise Martin Luther King's approach of non-violent civil disobedience.
Otherwise, I have grave concerns about the Ron Paul money-bomb this Monday. I already think that a money-bomb on a holiday, when I expect some people will be enjoying the day off and away from their computers, is a problem. A money-bomb on a Monday, where people have had two days off and potentially away from their computers and occupied doing other things, is a problem. A money-bomb shortly after what I expect will be two disappointing showings in Nevada and South Carolina is a problem. Three strikes, you're out.
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