Two Pathways
I finished reading Dale Allen Pfeiffer's "Eating Fossil Fuels" and enjoyed the account it gave of the shift in Cuban agriculture after the fall of the Soviet Union. Essentially an economic colony of communism that exported tobacco, sugar, and citrus to the Soviet Union, Cuba's agricultural system collapsed after it lost its main trading partner. At the time, Cuba imported 60 percent of its food and was highly dependent on the Soviet Union for oil. From 1994 and 1995 onward, Cuba's economy and in particular it's agricultural system have recovered. It has been considered a model for how other nations may adapt to peak oil and the decline in fossil fuels, and Pfiffer's book is a short overview of the lessons to take away from the island nation.
Of course, I noticed how many of the changes occurred from the bottom up and wouldn't have been possible if the communist government hadn't gotten out of the way. The growth in farmers markets and urban gardens, which have enabled half of the food consumed in Havana to come from small gardens in Havana, wouldn't have faced greater obstacles if the Cuban government hadn't backed down and recognized the right of the individual to buy and sell produce in a small-scale free market. Going in the opposite direction of the advice handed out by the IMF and World Bank, Cuba actually dropped its emphasis on cash crops in tobacco, sugar, and citrus fruit and turned their large state run plantations into smaller cooperatives where individual farmers are rewarded based on their productivity. Overnight, Cuban agricultural had to become organic agriculture because of the lack of oil. Animals replaced tractors, earthworms replaced petroleum-based fertilizers.
The book shines in offering an alternative tale, a counterpoint to Cuba. Pfeiffer notes how North Korea experienced many similar challenges following the fall of the Soviet Union. But unlike Cuba, the inability to adapt has doomed the nation to poverty and widespread famine. Agricultural production has collapsed, the fall of the Soviet Union and the nation's isolation from China has resulted in a lack of the oil needed for fertilizers. Cuba certainly had advantages in climate, but I believe that there is still a valuable lesson in comparing the two pathways offered by North Korea and Cuba. Survival is possible, humanity can adapt to peak oil, but it isn't going to be automatic and many areas may not be able to change.


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