Given that there is a chance that the LP party nominee might have an effect on the Presidential Race this election cycle, it's of benefit to keep tabs on current trends in the LP even if you aren't a LP member(I believe I'm probably the only poster on this site who is a LP member). Steve Gordon at Third Party Watch, among others, is providing some interesting data that suggests that late-entry Mary Ruwart could end up snatching the nomination in similar fashion as Badnarik did back in 2004. The LP does not use a 1st Ballot plurality voting system, but rather a runoff system, so candidates who may not win a plurality on the 1st ballot, but potentially who would be many delegates second choice, can end up winning. That seems to be a distinct possibility for Ruwart. Root, at this point, would seem to be the favorite on a 1st ballot, but also suffers from high negatives, meaning he would likely lose to Ruwart in the final run-off ballot.

Here are the top 4 declared candidates:

Root: 28%
Ruwart: 25%
Phillies: 10%
Gravel: 9%

If Bob Barr officially declares (his exploratory committee is exploring if Barr can raise a minimum of around 250-500k...if he can, then he will declare), then he would become the favorite, but it wouldn't be a cakewalk and there would still be an outside shot at a Ruwart victory.

Barr:30%
Root: 22%
Ruwart: 17%
Phillies: 9%
Gravel: 4%

In terms of Gravel, while he seems a distant long shot according to this survey polling, it should be noted he has had strong showings in the straw polls at 2 recent libertarian debates, placing a strong 3rd at the Heartland debate, and placing 2nd at the Ohio debate. He's a long shot but not a no-shot. He currently holds 4th place in terms of the likely nominee IMHO.

So here's how I rank them:

1) Barr
2) Ruwart
3) Root
4) Gravel

If Barr fails to met his fund raisng requirements and decides not to throw his hat in the ring, it would not be completely out of the realm of possibility that Gravel, if he had a strong convention speech/showing, could conceivably snag the nomination on a final ballot, but it's a puncher's chance.

While it's not a sure thing that Barr will secure the LP Nomination, it's likely enough to speculate on how it would effect the presidential race.

Having listened to Barr recently make the rounds on Fox,CNN, and talk radio, here are the positions he will take on the issues:

1) Iraq War: Mistake, but advocates Definitive Timetable for withdrawal, not immediate withdrawal
2) Drug War: Medical marijuana legal, will avoid addressing it beyond that
3) Restoration of Civil Liberties...WILL be hardcore on this (patriot act, real ID, etc)
4) Government Spending and a Fair Tax(sales tax with rebate replacing income tax)
5) Border Security...Won't pander like Ron Paul, but will be to the right of Mccain and Obama
6) Gay marriage...no federal amendment, let the states decide

This is tailor made for the right libertarian, conservative-libertarian and will cut into McCain.

Bob Barr has Doug Mataconis's enthusiastic support at The Liberty Papers. And Unlike this post I don't see how Barr would really take that much from Obama because he's really not that much to the left of Obama on civil liberties, drugs, and the War. Maybe slighly, but Barr also carries quite a bit of prior conservative baggage, quite frankly. I have a difficult time imagining how any progressive would vote for the guy who engineered the Clinton Impeachment over Barack Obama. Nuff said...

I think Barr could put Georgia in play for Obama and would torpedo Mccain in the more libertarian mountain west/southwest states. And I'm noticing the MSM would be quite receptive to Nader-type spoiler angle emerging from the right, given how much media attention Barr has been getting.

As a LP member, my own personal preference has always been Steve Kubby, but Kubby offers no opportunity to "game" the system. At one time, I thought Ron Paul offered that unique opportunity, to both "game" the system and provide an educational opportunity as well as potentially permanently damage the GOP, which i have come to despise. However, Paul refused to take that path and his campaign further indulged in questionable advertising that i found repugnant as a libertarian. Barr will not spark a "creative class" outburst that Paul did, nor will raise Paul type money, but Barr's campaign will actually be run much more competently and will be running to stick the middle finger to the GOP. Bet on it. I am also pleased to see that Steve Gordon has joined the Barr campaign. I consider Steve a solid libertarian.

UPDATE
I see Justin Raimondo weighs in on the Barr factor, but can't help himself in taking potshots at left-libertarians over immigration and gay marriage. I still waiting on a credible explanation from the Paleos just exactly how they would enforce their tough talk about "securing the borders" without implementing an intolerable level of statism. Ron Paul was a complete panderer on this issue...he would run ads protraying himself almost to the right of Tom Tancredo on this issue and then when he was asked individually about the enforcement mechanisms to achieve it, he would be against every single one of them. "The Fence...Nope." "Reversing posse comitatus and putting the military on the borders...Nope." Implementing Real ID and National ID Cards and Electronic Verfification...Nope" Just what is the enforcement mechanism here?...we have a 30 billion a year drug trade that crosses our border every year as well as a steady stream of workers who are seeking better economic opportunity. The only other enforcement mechanism I can think is to hope for a complete economic collapse so that there will be no longer be any incentive for anything to cross the border.