Paul Ends Presidential Campaign...

Not to be overly wry, but I suppose a fair question could be asked if it ever really began. Back in late December when Paul had the most cash on hand out of all the Republican contenders, I don't think the expectation was that Paul would run an inept, lackluster effort in Iowa and especially New Hampshire, then essentially suspend the campaign to write a book, do a book tour, and then formally announce that he was using his left over campaign cash to form The Campaign for Liberty. I suppose that John McCain should be thanking his lucky stars that Paul never really made much of an effort to use his money to target the independent vote in New Hampshire, otherwise it would likely be Mitt Romney being coronated in Minneapolis.

What to make of this Campaign for Liberty from a libertarian perspective? To the extent it sandboxes a "libertarian movement" within the GOP, I will say "Good Luck," but I have already been there and done that. Nevertheless, per the posts here, tAtP and TCP, the handwriting is on the wall for a likely "libertarian revival" in the GOP. With a likely McCain defeat and the subsequent waning of K Street influence over a party totally out of power, I suppose it's inevitable that the GOP will rediscover the religion of "small government." You already see it happening, with very public recriminations over "compassionate conservativism," Grover Norquist reformulating the Club for Growth's message along more libertarian lines, and, of course, the R3VOLution. As I posted over at tAtP, I see The Club for Growth being the "air game"(read: media) with the r3VOLution being the ground game(read: infiltrating local party ground structure) in an attempt to forge a more libertarian re-orientation in the GOP. If McCain gets stomped, I think it's fairly likely to see this "National Greatness" meme fade for the time being in the GOP. The Bush mafia will regroup to plot their inevitable return.

From a purely political perspective, however, I think the demographics work against a pro-life, anti-immigration flavor of libertarianism. The libertarian wars will go on....

I think you're exactly on point about the possibility of a "small government" revival within the GOP. The Republican Party seems very skillful about swinging back and forth to try to capture the center, just look at the shift from wanting to dismantle the Department of Education in 1996 to pushing for national standardized testing in 2000. If John McCain's "national greatness" conservatism doesn't work, they will certainly try something new.

With a Democratic trifecta, there will be the strong possibility of the GOP to claim that big liberal government is going too far. The party that pushes abstinence only education will be outraged by whatever programs the left pushes once in office for our schools. Hypocrites, yes, but that's what you can get away with as the party out of power.

The situation will largely develop into a socially conservative backlash against a rising secular culture in America, the last rage against the night of the Religious Right. They'll blame the government, not the natural progression of humanity, for destroying "traditional values." I think we'll end up seeing the Republican Party settling down on some type of compromise on immigration, driven largely by the corporate interests funding the Club for Growth and similar organizations and the grassroots level cultural conservatives. What it will look like I don't know yet, but it could be something along the lines of cutting off welfare benefits for immigrants, pushing for an end to birthright citizenship, and a national sales tax that would have rebates that discriminate against immigrants/non-citizens.

What I don't see in this situation is a way for the GOP to win back a majority. What part of the Obama coalition defects? Long term, the Obama coalition is on the rise. This may be a revival of small government conservatism in the GOP, but it won't mean a revival of small government politics at the national level.