Some thoughts on the poll above . . .

First, some assumptions.

Senator John McCain will be defeated by Senator Barack Obama by both a solid electoral and popular vote margin, although not the blowout I once expected. Barack Obama will have the psychological boost of being the first Democratic candidate since LBJ to win over 50% of the popular vote.

Governor Sarah Palin, who for a while was managing to exceed expectations and present herself as a reasonable nominee for VP and a tentatively reasonable Presidential candidate down the road, will be considered a disaster.

Democrats will make major gains in the House and Senate, although I am open to the possibility of a few Republicans hanging on (Hence why I included Senator Norm Coleman). But overall there's little to no chance for the Republican Party to look at 2008 and see a silver lining. Except for maybe that they will still have some members in Congress. That's not silver, that's bronze.

Now look back at the relatively uninspiring list of characters from the 2008 Republican primary fight. Republicans have been out of luck for two straight cycles now, it's hard to find a strong candidate from their bench right now. Consider . . .

The Governors

The list, as I see it, is narrowed to Governor Rick Perry of Texas, Governor Charlie Crist of Florida, Governor Tim Pawlenty of Minnesota, and Governor Mark Sanford of South Carolina, out of the current bench. I'm throwing in former Governors Mitt Romney of Massachusetts, Mike Huckabee of Arkansas, and even Jeb Bush of Florida just to illustrate the weakness of the GOP bench. Jindal is a joke, and Crist has too many questions about his personal life, but their names will probably be floated. Jeb Bush has too many negative associations with his name. For now, Mike Huckabee seems more interested in his TV show on Faux than on running for President. The realistic list is Romney, Perry, Pawlenty, and Sanford. I tried to think back on former Governors who might pop up again, like Gilmore and Tommy Thompson from 2008, but no one jumps out.

The Senators

Here, another weak bench. Democratic pickups have really pushed the Republican Party into a corner in the chamber. Even the Republican Senators that hang on are either too old or too conservative to mount a real chance at the nomination. I could probably be convinced that there are a few more possible candidates, like a Kyl or an Ensign, but neither one has expressed an interest in running. This list begins and ends with Senator John Thune of South Dakota.

Others

Could we see someone unexpected storm to the nomination? Perhaps, but the very fact of them being unexpected makes it difficult to predict. For now, this category is empty.

As it stands, Romney has the highest name ID of the list and could very easily position himself as a front-runner. But the same problems he had in 2008 will haunt him in 2012. This vulnerability will encourage other possible candidates, most likely Thune, Sanford, and Pawlenty, to make a go at it. The advantage is still to Romney because of the name ID and the historical trend of Republican presidential primaries to go to people who ran previously or have some type of historical link (Bush family).

Idle speculation on a Monday.