Marc Ambinder argues that regardless of the outcome of this election, the Republican Party will be in need of some soul searching and party re-branding. But this future is limited by the political factions that are already affiliated with the GOP.

The debate about the future of the new Republican Party usually hinges on how its constitutive political nodes: the National Security node, the Social Conservative node, the Free Marketers, the Total Libertarian -- coalesce. This organizational principle assumes a tabula rasa that will not, in actuality, be so rasa. Consider: the members of the Republican National Committee will elect the chairman of the Republican Party; they'll be a faction. House Republicans from safe Republican districts will be a faction; Governors will be a faction; iconoclasts (Rep. Shadegg and Rep. Paul) will be a faction; the donor class will be a faction; Christian activists will be a faction; Professional conservatives will be a faction. The idea mavens - those who tap the ground to find new sources of intellectual energy - will be a faction too. Certainly, some of these groups plot easily along an X axis; RNC members are markedly traditionally conservative; the House Republicans organize around grievance politics; the donor class worries about regulation and their finances. But the nation's Republican governors, are all over the map, united more by their pragmatism than their adherence to any of the older ideas. Temperaments are different too. RNC members are irascible; House Republicans are pseudo-populist and looking for a political savior; the governors are moderate; the professional conservatives are keepers of the orthodoxy and soul-searchers; Christian activists are stalwart and (justifiably) unyielding. The point is: putting the ship on even keep won't simply be matter of finding an idea, pulling together interest groups, and winning an election.

The problems facing the GOP are even deeper when you look at potential 2012 candidates. The weak bench of presidential candidates contributed to the crazy primary of 2008, which combined with the Republican Party's delegate allocation system to give John McCain the nomination without the support of most hard line conservatives. John McCain's nomination after being declared dead worked to produce an enthusiasm gap, in turn contributing to his decision to pick Governor Sarah Palin as his Vice President.

Could this process be repeated in 2008, with a fractured conservative base allowing the more moderate candidate to be nominated? Or will conservatives decide that they cannot allow themselves to be divided, with leaders of factions like the Religious Right working extra hard to line up support behind one candidate? The way in which Republican Governors and GOP financiers lined up behind George W. Bush in the run up to 2000 is a strategy that could be duplicated in 2012.

Mitt Romney has the money and I think has improved his image among Republican activists. But I can also see how Mike Huckabee could convince the leaders of the Religious Right that they were wrong not to go along with him last time, producing a scenario in which the entire movement of the Religious Right is behind Huckabee, and not caught in a war between the base and the leadership like in 2007/2008.

The wild cards right now are if Huckabee runs or remains a talking head on Fox News, and who else jumps into the race. Newt Gingrich would produce the biggest splash, but there's a lot of second or third tier candidates who could fight their way to the top tier because there's no one else running. Consider Mike Huckabee last time around. A John Thune or Bobby Jindal would fit in here.

It's worth noting what Ambinder suggests is a difference between the rebranding of British Tories and the project ahead of American Republicans:

One thought I'll throw up for debate: if American Republicans think they can emulate the Tories and rebuild the party without the full participation of social conservatives, they're wrong.

As the voting block most likely to remain loyal to the GOP, the social conservatives will have a strong impact on how the Republican Party develops in the next four years. Any discussion of the future of the Republican Party has to start with considering socially conservative activists in the GOP. About the only way that the GOP could move to the center on social issues over the next four years if for another round where the social conservatives are divided and leaderless.