Majoritarian Issues

Submitted by LoganFerree on Wed, 2006-03-08 15:06.

Brad Spangler was inspired by Newt Gingrich to offer up some advice to anarchists in selling their political ideology. It's good stuff and I encourage you to check it out. Between the week I spent at the University of West Georgia going through Gingrich's papers and my ongoing paper on the strategies of minority parties in Congress I'm inundated with thoughts about learning from Gingrich as well. For example, check out the Contract with America.

1. THE FISCAL RESPONSIBILITY ACT: A balanced budget/tax limitation amendment and a legislative line-item veto to restore fiscal responsibility to an out- of-control Congress, requiring them to live under the same budget constraints as families and businesses.

2. THE TAKING BACK OUR STREETS ACT: An anti-crime package including stronger truth-in- sentencing, "good faith" exclusionary rule exemptions, effective death penalty provisions, and cuts in social spending from this summer's "crime" bill to fund prison construction and additional law enforcement to keep people secure in their neighborhoods and kids safe in their schools.

3. THE PERSONAL RESPONSIBILITY ACT: Discourage illegitimacy and teen pregnancy by prohibiting welfare to minor mothers and denying increased AFDC for additional children while on welfare, cut spending for welfare programs, and enact a tough two-years-and-out provision with work requirements to promote individual responsibility.

4. THE FAMILY REINFORCEMENT ACT: Child support enforcement, tax incentives for adoption, strengthening rights of parents in their children's education, stronger child pornography laws, and an elderly dependent care tax credit to reinforce the central role of families in American society.

5. THE AMERICAN DREAM RESTORATION ACT: A S500 per child tax credit, begin repeal of the marriage tax penalty, and creation of American Dream Savings Accounts to provide middle class tax relief.

6. THE NATIONAL SECURITY RESTORATION ACT: No U.S. troops under U.N. command and restoration of the essential parts of our national security funding to strengthen our national defense and maintain our credibility around the world.

7. THE SENIOR CITIZENS FAIRNESS ACT: Raise the Social Security earnings limit which currently forces seniors out of the work force, repeal the 1993 tax hikes on Social Security benefits and provide tax incentives for private long-term care insurance to let Older Americans keep more of what they have earned over the years.

8. THE JOB CREATION AND WAGE ENHANCEMENT ACT: Small business incentives, capital gains cut and indexation, neutral cost recovery, risk assessment/cost-benefit analysis, strengthening the Regulatory Flexibility Act and unfunded mandate reform to create jobs and raise worker wages.

9. THE COMMON SENSE LEGAL REFORM ACT: "Loser pays" laws, reasonable limits on punitive damages and reform of product liability laws to stem the endless tide of litigation.

10. THE CITIZEN LEGISLATURE ACT: A first-ever vote on term limits to replace career politicians with citizen legislators.

The Contract with America has moved into the status of political myth and legend; a Holy Grail that magically provided the chance for a party to win control of the House and Senate in one big landslide election. Many in the media today criticize the Democrats for not having an alternative agenda and believe that they will be unable to win unless they offer up their own Contract with America. But we need to remember just why the Contract of America was important.

The false premise is that oppositions win midterm elections by offering a clear program, such as the Republicans' 1994 Contract With America. I've been testing this idea with such architects of the 1994 "Republican revolution" as former representative Vin Weber and Tony Blankley, who was Newt Gingrich's top communications adviser and now edits the Washington Times editorial page.

Both said the main contribution of the contract was to give inexperienced Republican candidates something to say once the political tide started moving the GOP's way. But both insisted that it was disaffection with Bill Clinton, not the contract, that created the Republicans' opportunity -- something Bob Dole said at the time.

Since his election to the House of Representatives in 1978 Newt was full of big ideas like the "Contract with America" or the "Conservative Opportunity Society" or the "Budget of Hope" as campaign devices for the Republicans to take back the House. But it didn't work until 1994, when Clinton's unpopularity provided the Republicans with an opportunity.

Americans support their incumbents until something bad happens and they develop a desire to kick the bums out of office. But a strong campaign by the incumbent(s) to question and undermine the challenger(s) can still be effective--look at 2004. The importance of Newt's decade long quest to take over the House was to provide a way for the Republicans to look credible once the opportunity arose.

Every single plank in the Contract with America had been poll tested and presented to focus groups. Every single plank polled at or above 60%; the Republicans were specifically avoiding issues that would focus only on their base such as abortion and school prayer. They were attempting to reach out to the unhappy swing voters. The precise wording and even the order of the Contract was developed through focus group testing with a group of Perot voters, the swing voters the GOP hoped to pick up in 1994.

Look at what Newt is talking about now in his book Winning the Future. He's got another set of 60% issues, although they haven't been codified into specific pieces of legislation.

1. We should be allowed to say “one nation under God” in the Pledge of Allegiance.

2. Able-bodied people on welfare should be required to work.

3. Men who assault pregnant women and kill the unborn child should be prosecuted for assault and murder.

4. The United States should put its own interests first and cooperation with international organizations second.

5. I believe in God.

6. I am proud to be an American.

7. Schools should teach new immigrants about American history and values.

8. Every American should learn English.

9. Personal injury lawyers should get no more than 15 percent of any jury award.

10. It is possible to use new technology and new science to develop clean, renewable energy that protects the environment and the economy.

This isn't just a platform designed to win over Republicans in 2008, it will reach out to independent voters in New Hampshire and other primary states and provide him a strong platform for the general election. Don't believe me? We'll just have to wait and see.

In the mean time, what can Democrats do? They are working hard toward reach the goal of contesting as many House Districts as possible. This is the first step in applying pressure to the Republicans. Bush's numbers are dropping and the Republicans in Congress are also on the decline. But if you don't contest every district you leave a lot of Republicans who have an easy ride back to Congress. They don't panic and they are there to help raise money and support other endangered incumbents.

We've started to see a number of Republicans retire instead of face potentially difficult reelection campaigns. Or they dislike the prospect of winning reelection only to become a member of the minority party. Once you start to run a large number of challengers you encourage more people to retire. More retirements mean more competitive races. More competitive races mean a better chance of a turnover in party control. This in turn produces more pressure to retire. Rinse and repeat.

What can Bush and his Republican friends do to stop this cycle? How can they stay in power? Question the ability of the Democrats to do better. Put doubts in the minds of voters. Scare people. It's been done before.

This is where a Democratic "Contract with America" should come in. With a large field of challengers comes the likelihood that many of them are inexperienced. Without a simple set of issues that they are encouraged to stick to during the campaign they can easily make mistakes. Suddenly the race looks safe for the Republican again. Pressure is reduced. The incumbent is free to campaign for his friends who are still threatened. Victory is snatched from the jaws of defeat.

Without a national campaign the attention drifts away from how bad the Republican Congress and the Republican President are. Each race becomes localized and suddenly the incumbent, who's been so helpful over the years, is able to run a campaign without the baggage of his party. He's spoken at your son's high school graduation. He helped your grandmother when there was a problem with getting her Social Security check. He helped get the money to build the vistors center for the town. He's a nice guy, really.

The danger is running on a national agenda that is not popular. Democrats could easily come up with an agenda of free abortions for all and a new 90% income tax bracket for those making above $60,000 and blow the election. I hope that Pelosi, Reid, and Dean are working together to come up with an agenda that works. But I wouldn't be surprised if they were clashing and disagreeing with one another about what needs to be done. This is the Democratic Party, after all.

Democrats need to realize that while some of their liberal issues may break 50%, they need to focus on a higher bar of 60% or more. Something like a slim majority of Americans being pro-choice isn't going to be enough. They need to find issues that go beyond the liberal base. In my opinion their best bet is to reach out to libertarians. What, did you think I was going to suggest they become more authoritarian?

The reason I suggest libertarianism is my belief that social issues will trump economic issues for many voters that appear to be swing voters on paper. A pollster may find a large number of voters who are pro-life and want the government to help pay medical bills. On paper this group may appear to be a group that the Democrats could win over. But when you consider the intensity of their views it is likely that they'll pick the party of social conservatism over whatever economic liberalism is offered by the Democrats. Or just stay home.

On the whole anyone with strong socially conservative views needs to be ruled out as potential swing voters, regardless of their economic views. We need to reach out to non-Democrats with strong socially liberal views and people who are ambivalent about social issues. We can further identify individuals who are currently voting Republican and those that don't bother voting at all.

It makes sense that someone who is ambivalent about social issues and votes Republican is most likely doing so because of economic issues. Someone who doesn't bother to vote may have strong socially liberal views, and therefore rules out the Republican Party, but they are unhappy with the economic agenda of the Democratic Party. Our conclusion is that Democrats need to work on their economic agenda. If we're thinking about ten specific legislative proposals around seven to eight should focus on economic issues. The remaining could be social legislation that appeals to super-majorities of Americans, perhaps something related to Terri Schiavo and living wills.

If you can craft a piece of legislation dealing with an issue like spending, taxes, corporate welfare, or even trade, that receives the support of BOTH liberals and libertarians you have found a clear "60% issue." And that, my friends, is victory for the Democratic Party.